Abstract

Existing economic voting literature implicitly assumes a direct, causal relationship between perceived economic performance and vote choice. This link is, in fact, indirect and hinges on opinions of governmental impact on the economy. We consider the relationship between these two economic attitudes, and find that they have different relationships with vote choice. While the relationship between economic variables and vote choice is well established, little is known about factors that influence economic evaluations. Using insights from the theory of motivated reasoning, we show that two important political identities (partisan and geographic) influence perceptions of the status of the economy and the government’s economic impact. We conclude that political identities have a biasing effect on responses to subjective attitudinal questions.

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